DISCUSSION

...Northern Mediterranean to southeastern Europe ...
Focus of expected convection will be the vorticity axis from northern Iberian Peninsula to central Italy and further to the Black Sea by Wednesday afternoon. Over southeastern Europe, well developed vort-maxima will propagate northward. Strong synoptic forcing is expected ahead of this feature from southern Germany to western Black Sea. At lower levels ... cold front of eastern Central European low is forecast from Crete to western Turkey and further to eastern Poland. Warm airmass east of this cold front should be rather stable due to latest soundings that indicate relatively poor low-level moisture. However ... as synoptic forcing will be strong, narrow band of convection with embedded thunderstorms may form along the cold front, and strong wind gusts will be likely due to the relatively strong horizontal pressure gradient. West of the cold front ... from the Black Sea to northwestern Mediterranean ... convectively mixed airmass is expected underneath the long-wave trough axis ... and diabatic heating building CAPE in the range of 200 J/kg should assist for thunderstorms. Deep layer wind shear will be rather weak over the northern portions increasing to the south where upper jet streak moves eastward. During the forecast period ... thunderstorms should form west of the cold front and move eastward. Thunderstorms should likely organize due to strong forcing. Small hail and strong wind gusts are forecast. Over the southern portions ... strong shear should be more favourable for LEWPs especially over the southern Balkans and severe wind gusts will be more likely. Mesocyclones due to orographic enhanced SRH are not ruled out and the chance for marginally severe hail and tornadoes should be enhanced.

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